2020-21 NHL season predictions: Standings, awards, and playoffs
It's been a long three and a half months, but the NHL is back and it's time to make some predictions!
Hello friends!
Hockey season is officially upon us! The 2020-21 NHL season begins this evening with a slate of five games to kick off what will be a very unusual year of hockey. As such, it’s time once again for me to bust out my predictions for how I see the upcoming season of hockey unfolding. Will I hit the nail on the head? Or, will I be completely wrong and absolutely jinx your favorite team into a disasterous season? There’s only one way to find out, so let’s dive in!
(Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images)
Fourteen weeks after the league’s usual start date in a typical year, the 2020-21 NHL season begins this week. The last time we had a January start date for the NHL was after the 2012-13 lockout, where each team played 48 games and the Chicago Blackhawks were awarded the Stanley Cup in late June.
That, however, is where the similarities end. The 2020-21 NHL season will hopefully see teams play 56 games each while in the midst of a global pandemic. The teams will not be bubbled as they were for the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs. Instead, the divisions are realigned for ease of travel and teams will only play others in their division, with the top four teams from each making it to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
We’ve already seen the effects of playing outside of a bubble even before the season has begun, with the Dallas Stars postponing their first four games of the season after six players and two staff members tested positive last week. While the NHL successfully held a 24-team playoff and awarded the Stanley Cup to the Tampa Bay Lightning with no positive cases of COVID-19, the players opted not to play in a bubble for the 56-game season this year.
Though the circumstances are less-than-ideal — and there’s the valid argument that the NHL should not have played games at all this season at all due to the pandemic — it’s only fair that I give my predictions for the slate of hockey games awaiting us. As always with my predictions, I may not always be right (in fact, I’m wrong more often than not) but hey, it’s Content™️!
North Division
Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Winnipeg Jets
Ottawa Senators
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the clear-cut favorites to finish at the top of the North Division (aka the Oops! All Canada division) this season. There’s no team in the North that comes close to touching Toronto’s depth on offense, and while their defense is still suspect, Canada’s teams will have a hard time keeping up with Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Joe Thornton, Mitch Marner, Wayne Simmonds, and William Nylander on offense.
As for the rest of the North Division, the other three playoff spots feel like anyone’s game. The biggest story, for me, is where the Vancouver Canucks will fall after an offseason that saw the departures of Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev, and Troy Stecher via free agency. The Canucks did pick up former Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby in free agency and former Golden Knights defender Nate Schmidt in a trade, but the Canucks are a weaker team on paper than they were in the playoffs when they took Vegas to seven games.
I also feel as if Montreal will surprise many this year with a strong performance after falling backwards into last season’s playoffs as the 24th team. The Canadiens don’t have much in the way of star power, but make up for it with a lot of depth with adding Jake Allen in goal and Toffoli, Joel Edmundson, Michael Frolik, and Corey Perry up front in the offseason. Montreal showcased a lot of tenacity in last season’s playoffs, from besting the Pittsburgh Penguins in the play-in round and giving the Philadelphia Flyers all they could handle before bowing out in six games, and I’ll be surprised if that attitude doesn’t showcase itself again this season.
The Flames and Oilers will play each other 10 times this season, a record for the rivalry, but I think both will get into the postseason at the end of the day, if they don’t beat each other to a pulp before then. As for Winnipeg and Ottawa, neither team feels like it could punch its way into the playoffs with the talented teams above them, though both teams made interesting pickups in the offseason.
East Division
Boston Bruins
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Buffalo Sabres
New Jersey Devils
Another year, another season putting the Boston Bruins at the top of a division. The Bruins were the winners of the 2020 Presidents' Trophy after being the only team to hit the 100-point mark in a shortened season. This year, the Bruins will be without former captain Zdeno Chara for the first time since 2006, as the veteran defenseman left for Washington in free agency. Boston also lost Torey Krug to free agency as well, leaving their defense in a bit of a state.
While I have the Bruins leading the East Division here, I could see any of the top five fitting into the top four spots by season’s end. The Bruins sit in my top spot due to their stellar offensive chops, and Tuukka Rask’s pedigree as a top-of-the-line netminder, which will likely be leaned heavily upon due to Boston’s defensive holes.
What will likely be a surprise for some is where I’ve slotted the Philadelphia Flyers in this season. For me, the depth of the Flyers on offense alongside the play of Carter Hart in net will make them legitimate contenders for the top of the East Division. The retirement of Matt Niskanen on defense hurts, as he was a major factor on the team’s top pair, and overall the Flyers defense is probably the weakest aspect of the team. However, the team will likely be adding back Nolan Patrick, Oskar Lindblom, and Shayne Gostisbehere to the roster this season, and if the Flyers can get even average performances from them this year, they’ll be in good shape overall.
As for the Pittsburgh Penguins, I am a bit worried that the organization is leaning so heavily on goaltender Tristan Jarry, who had a great .921 save percentage season last year with 33 games played but has yet to show that he can put up those numbers consistently. With trading away Matt Murray to Ottawa and moving on from Jack Johnson, the Penguins are looking to better compete this season with a more fleshed out roster. While I can’t count out a team captained by Sidney Crosby, a lot rides on the performance of Jarry and the defense in front of him.
The Capitals also will be relying on a fresh-faced goaltender this season with Ilya Samsonov taking the reins after the departure of long-time netminder Holtby. Washington added head coach Peter Laviolette to the team in September, and have added some depth to the roster in Chara on defense and Conor Sheary on offense. While Washington’s window is closing as the team’s core continues to get older, the injection of new blood will likely do the Capitals good this year.
Even though I have the New York Islanders sitting outside of a playoff spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slip in if one of the top four teams slips up. Though the Islanders don’t have the most flashy roster in the division, Barry Trotz is probably the best head coach in the business and will absolutely cause problems for the top teams this year.
It’s hard to see the New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, and New Jersey Devils competing for a playoff spot in what is no doubt the toughest division in the NHL this year. I am interested in seeing how Alexis Lafreniere will perform in his rookie season after being the top pick in last year’s draft, but I don’t think the Rangers will be able to punch above their weight this year even with his addition to the team.
Central Division
Tampa Bay Lightning
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Columbus Blue Jackets
Nashville Predators
Florida Panthers
Chicago Blackhawks
Detroit Red Wings
The reigning Stanley Cup champions are entering the season without their best player in Nikita Kucherov. The loss of Kucherov due to a hip injury for the Tampa Bay Lightning can’t be understated, however the Lightning will be getting Steven Stamkos back after the captain missed essentially all of last year’s postseason. Given that the team is returning the majority of their Stanley Cup winning roster, it’s nearly a given that the Lightning will be competitive for the top spot in the Central Division this season.
Another team that will be competitive in the Central this season is the Carolina Hurricanes, who boast one of the best defensive cores in the NHL. Andrei Svechnikov brought the flash last season with the lacrosse goals, but Sebastian Aho was the team’s leading points producer last season and somehow still feels incredibly underrated. The only major weak point the Hurricanes have is their goaltending duo of James Reimer and Petr Mrazek aren’t the strongest in the league, but even a league average performance from them would be good enough to make them one of the top teams in this division.
It’s extremely funny to me that the NHL put both the Lightning and the Stars in the same division this year after last year’s Stanley Cup Final. Dallas will no doubt have the loss to Tampa in their minds as they play eight times this season, and the Stars will also be fighting with the Lightning for a playoff spot this year. Dallas’ young players in Joel Kiviranta and Miro Heiskanen will have a lot to prove this year, alongside the team’s core, especially with the injuries to Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop that will keep them out of the lineup for awhile.
Fighting for that last spot in the Central is likely to be the Blue Jackets, Predators, and Panthers, three teams that qualify as mixed bags for me. Columbus is who I have making it into the postseason this year, due to John Tortorella’s coaching and the surprising mix of young talent the team has. Nashville could surprise if Matt Duchene and the rest of the Predators’ offense improves. And if Florida has any chance of making it, it’ll be on the back of Sergei Bobrovsky’s performance in goal after a dreadful 2019-20 season.
That leaves just the Blackhawks and Red Wings as the bottom feeders of the Central Division this season. Given Chicago’s massive injuries and departures, and Detroit still in rebuild mode, these two teams are a given to finish in the basement of this division.
West Division
Colorado Avalanche
St. Louis Blues
Vegas Golden Knights
Minnesota Wild
Arizona Coyotes
Anaheim Ducks
San Jose Sharks
Los Angeles Kings
The sky seems to be the limit for this Colorado Avalanche team, who will be returning all their major players from the 2019-20 season and have added both Devon Toews and Brandon Saad via trades. The Avalanche faltered in the postseason last year thanks to key injuries to their offense and goaltending, but the added depth they acquired this offseason should surely help maintain the form of what is already a very strong roster.
Alongside the Avalanche at the top are the St. Louis Blues and the Vegas Golden Knights, both teams that could be interchangeable in where they fall in the top four of this division. Both teams added and lost pieces. Alex Pietrangelo is now on the Golden Knights after captaining the Blues to their first Stanley Cup victory in 2019. Vegas kept Marc-Andre Fleury in goal despite his decline and lost Nate Schmidt to trade. St. Louis, meanwhile picked up Krug from Boston and added Mike Hoffman via tryout.
I have St. Louis sitting in the No. 2 spot over Vegas because I think their team is just a bit deeper and has one or two fewer question marks than the Golden Knights. Both teams, however, should be easy shoe-ins for the playoffs this year.
That leaves the rest of the West Division. The Minnesota Wild will get a big bump from prospect Kirill Kaprizov, and overall the team has a good base to stand on, especially with Cam Talbot now leading the Wild in net after a disasterous season from Devan Dubnyk last year. Arizona has a great goalie tandem in Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta, but not much else to show on their roster that will push them into playoff contention.
The three California teams — Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles — will sit at the bottom of the West Division once again. The Ducks have great goaltending in John Gibson, but much like the Coyotes, don’t have a lot else going for them. I don’t see the Sharks rebounding much, if at all, this season after a terrible 2019-20 showing. And the Kings are in rebuild mode, though their prospects in Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte could put on a show this season.
It’s clear that the West Division has one tier of teams a cut above the rest, with Minnesota and Arizona realistically fighting for that last playoff spot.
Awards
Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon
Art Ross: Connor McDavid
Norris Trophy: Victor Hedman
Vezina Trophy: Robin Lehner
Calder Trophy: Alexis Lafreniere
Selke Trophy: Anthony Cirelli
Jack Adams: Claude Julien
Stanley Cup winner: Colorado Avalanche
Personally, I think this year will be Colorado’s to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 2001. As long as injuries don’t decimate the Avalanche once more, they feel like they have a championship in them this year. With the way the playoff format is this season, we could get strange Stanley Cup Final matchups, but my personal hope is we get Tampa Bay versus Colorado as they are my top two NHL teams heading into the 2020-21 season.
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